Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
